The NFL is the most-wagered-on sport in North America — and it’s increasingly popular with Canadian bettors, especially since single-event sports betting was legalised nationally in 2021. With just 18 regular season games per team and immense media coverage, every game is a major event. But that also means the market is incredibly efficient. Here’s how to find an edge anyway.
Why the NFL Is the Hardest Sport to Beat
The NFL’s limited schedule means sportsbooks spend enormous resources setting sharp lines. By the time the public is betting Sunday morning, a Monday open line has been hammered by professional syndicates for days. The spread is often within half a point of the true probability — which means the casual bettor is essentially paying the vig to flip a coin.
That said, edges do exist. They’re just subtler than in other sports, and finding them requires more than reading the injury report.
NFL Betting Markets Explained
Against the Spread (ATS)
The spread is king in NFL betting. The favourite gives points; the underdog gets points. With a standard -110 on both sides, you need to win 52.4% of bets just to break even. The best NFL spread bettors in the world are winning around 55–57% — which sounds modest but is enormously profitable over time.
Moneyline
Moneyline NFL betting is most interesting with underdogs. NFL upsets happen at a higher rate than casual bettors expect — roughly 30–35% of games are won by the underdog — and catching a +180 or +200 dog a few times in a season can be the difference between a profitable and losing year.
Game Totals
Over/under totals in the NFL factor in pace, weather, offensive line quality, and defensive rankings. Weather is particularly important for outdoor stadiums in late-season games — cold, wind, and snow all push totals under.
First Half / Second Half Lines
Many sharp bettors prefer first-half lines because there are fewer variables — no game script adjustments, no second-half strategy, no late-game garbage time scoring.
Managing the NFL Season as a Canadian Bettor
With only 18 weeks of regular season action plus playoffs, NFL bettors need to be selective. Betting every game is a recipe for losing money to the vig. The best approach is to identify 2–3 high-conviction plays per week, size them appropriately, and pass on the rest.
BestBets.ca publishes NFL picks weekly throughout the season. Check back every week for updated picks. 🏈
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