Today’s Best Bets — August 21, 2026

Today’s picks are powered by AI analysis combining live injury reports, current odds, and market data. All picks are generated automatically each morning.

Best Bets Today

  • MLB: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers
  • CFL: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Elks | SPREAD | Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4.5
  • UFC/MMA: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Orlando Sanders @ Joaquin Garcia | Moneyline | Joaquin Garcia
  • Boxing: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Lucrecia Manzur @ Amanda Serrano | Moneyline | Amanda Serrano
  • WNBA: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics | Moneyline | Minnesota Lynx
  • Liga MX: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Atlante FC @ Tigres | Moneyline | Tigres
  • Brazil Serie A: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Remo @ Fluminense | Moneyline | Fluminense
  • AFL: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats | Moneyline | Geelong Cats
  • NRL: BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Canterbury Bulldogs @ St George Illawarra Dragons | Moneyline | Canterbury Bulldogs

Value Bets (Higher Risk / Higher Reward)

  • MLB: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Moneyline | Tampa Bay Rays | ODDS: +116 | REASON: Freddy Peralta is a clear upgrade over Trevor Rogers and both bullpens are gassed, giving the Rays real value as underdogs.
  • CFL: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Elks | MONEYLINE | Winnipeg Blue Bombers | ODDS: +210 | REASON: Winnipeg’s stronger roster and defense make them live underdogs against an Edmonton team that shouldn’t be a -260 favorite.
  • UFC/MMA: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Dzhamal Mavliudov @ Benny Orozco | Moneyline | Dzhamal Mavliudov | ODDS: +180 | REASON: Orozco is favored but not dominantly so, giving live underdog value if Mavliudov’s aggression or grappling can neutralize the favorite’s edge.
  • Boxing: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Melissa Mortensen @ Mayeli Flores | Moneyline | Melissa Mortensen | ODDS: +110 | REASON: This is a genuinely competitive matchup where the pick’em-style odds suggest live underdog value on Mortensen.
  • WNBA: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Portland Fire @ Toronto Tempo | Moneyline | Portland Fire | ODDS: -144 | REASON: Fire’s veteran roster construction should give them an edge over an expansion team still gelling in Toronto.
  • Liga MX: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Monterrey @ León | Moneyline | Monterrey | ODDS: +114 | REASON: Monterrey is a historically elite squad getting plus-money as a true road underdog, offering solid value against a León side that hasn’t been dominant enough to justify such a short price.
  • Brazil Serie A: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Remo @ Fluminense | Moneyline | Fluminense | ODDS: -260 | REASON: Fluminense’s home quality and squad depth should prove too much for a Remo side that projects as a significant underdog in class and form.
  • AFL: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Adelaide Crows | Moneyline | Adelaide Crows | ODDS: -400 | REASON: Adelaide is dominant at home this season and GWS’s inconsistent away form makes the Crows a safer investment than the implied probability suggests.
  • NRL: VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles @ Newcastle Knights | Moneyline | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | ODDS: +200 | REASON: Manly’s attacking talent gives them a live shot to upset a Knights side that has been inconsistent at home this season.

Full Game Analysis

MLB

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Moneyline | Tampa Bay Rays | ODDS: +116 | REASON: Freddy Peralta is a clear upgrade over Trevor Rogers and both bullpens are gassed, giving the Rays real value as underdogs.

GAME: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
SPREAD PICK: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 6.0
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Misiorowski's power stuff and Milwaukee's home edge outweigh Sale despite both bullpens being fatigued.

GAME: St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
SPREAD PICK: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 8.0
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Luzardo is far superior to a struggling Dobbins and Philly's lineup should feed off a tired Cardinals bullpen.

GAME: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
SPREAD PICK: New York Yankees -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 7.0
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: A TBD Toronto starter against Schlittler in the Bronx heavily favors the Yankees, especially with both pens taxed.

GAME: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
SPREAD PICK: Boston Red Sox -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 7.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Sonny Gray's home form and Boston's lineup depth give them the edge even against Webb, with wind gusts aiding offense.

GAME: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
PICK: Miami Marlins
SPREAD PICK: Miami Marlins -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 7.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Gusto is more reliable than Lord and Miami's home comfort should be enough against a thin Nationals lineup.

GAME: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
SPREAD PICK: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 7.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Peralta's stuff should neutralize Baltimore's lineup while Trevor Rogers remains inconsistent.

GAME: New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox
SPREAD PICK: Chicago White Sox -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 7.5
CONFIDENCE: Low
REASON: Manaea gives Mets a chance, but White Sox home split and fresher bats tip the closely priced game.

GAME: Athletics @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
SPREAD PICK: Houston Astros -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 8.0
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Ginn is a fill-in starter for a depleted A's roster while Houston's lineup and home field dominate.

GAME: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Detroit Tigers
SPREAD PICK: Detroit Tigers -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 8.0
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Melton has been solid and Detroit's lineup depth edges a shaky Royals bullpen situation.

GAME: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
SPREAD PICK: Texas Rangers -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 7.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Gore's home performance and Texas's deeper bullpen give them control over a limited Angels offense.

GAME: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Cleveland Guardians
SPREAD PICK: Cleveland Guardians -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 10.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Coors Field's thin air and 38 km/h gusts should fuel offense while Cleveland's overall roster quality wins out.

GAME: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
SPREAD PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 8.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: E-Rod at home is steadier than Lodolo, and Arizona's lineup should capitalize despite Marte's absence.

GAME: Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
SPREAD PICK: San Diego Padres -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 8.0
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Padres' home pitching and bullpen depth should contain a Twins offense missing key pieces.

GAME: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
SPREAD PICK: Seattle Mariners +1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 7.5
CONFIDENCE: Low
REASON: Home field and bullpen freshness give Seattle a slight edge in a virtual coin-flip pitching matchup.

GAME: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
SPREAD PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 8.0
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Yamamoto's dominance and the Dodgers' powerful lineup should overwhelm a struggling Pirates offense.

CFL

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Elks | SPREAD | Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4.5
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Elks | MONEYLINE | Winnipeg Blue Bombers | ODDS: +210 | REASON: Winnipeg's stronger roster and defense make them live underdogs against an Edmonton team that shouldn't be a -260 favorite.

GAME: Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Elks
PICK: Winnipeg Blue Bombers
SPREAD PICK: Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 59.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Warm temps, light wind, and dry conditions favor an efficient passing attack, and Winnipeg's overall talent edge makes the plus-money line and spread appealing value.

UFC/MMA

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Orlando Sanders @ Joaquin Garcia | Moneyline | Joaquin Garcia
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Dzhamal Mavliudov @ Benny Orozco | Moneyline | Dzhamal Mavliudov | ODDS: +180 | REASON: Orozco is favored but not dominantly so, giving live underdog value if Mavliudov's aggression or grappling can neutralize the favorite's edge.

GAME: Aiden Ingram @ Sevak Khachatryan
PICK: Sevak Khachatryan
SPREAD PICK: Sevak Khachatryan ML
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 2.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Khachatryan's -165 line reflects a clear edge in skill or experience that should translate to a finish.

GAME: Artur Gadzhikhanov @ Nika Sabanashvili
PICK: Artur Gadzhikhanov
SPREAD PICK: Gadzhikhanov ML
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 2.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: A -450 line indicates a heavy mismatch in favor of Gadzhikhanov, likely ending inside the distance.

GAME: Austin Clayton @ Irakli Kuchukhidze
PICK: Austin Clayton
SPREAD PICK: Clayton ML
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 2.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: The -500 price shows Clayton is expected to dominate this matchup decisively.

GAME: Jonathan Hanes @ Daniel Frunza
PICK: Daniel Frunza
SPREAD PICK: Frunza ML
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 2.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Frunza's -275 favoritism suggests a clear skill gap, but Hanes' durability could stretch the fight into later rounds.

GAME: Orlando Sanders @ Joaquin Garcia
PICK: Joaquin Garcia
SPREAD PICK: Garcia ML
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 2.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: A -900 line points to an overwhelming favorite likely to finish quickly.

GAME: Dzhamal Mavliudov @ Benny Orozco
PICK: Benny Orozco
SPREAD PICK: Orozco ML
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 2.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Low
REASON: Orozco is favored but the moderate odds suggest a competitive, possibly decision-based fight.

GAME: Manuel Exposito @ Chris Mecate
PICK: Chris Mecate
SPREAD PICK: Mecate ML
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 2.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Mecate's -325 favoritism implies a clear advantage that could lead to a mid-fight stoppage.

Boxing

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Lucrecia Manzur @ Amanda Serrano | Moneyline | Amanda Serrano
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Melissa Mortensen @ Mayeli Flores | Moneyline | Melissa Mortensen | ODDS: +110 | REASON: This is a genuinely competitive matchup where the pick'em-style odds suggest live underdog value on Mortensen.

GAME: Brook Sibrian @ Guadalupe Medina
PICK: Guadalupe Medina
SPREAD PICK: Guadalupe Medina -1.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 6.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Low
REASON: No odds available so this is based on home-fighter presumption with limited data.

GAME: Miguelina Hernández @ Iyana Verduzco
PICK: Iyana Verduzco
SPREAD PICK: Iyana Verduzco -1.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 6.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Low
REASON: No market data available, defaulting to home fighter with slight edge assumption.

GAME: Salvador Zavala @ Nelvie Tiafack
PICK: Nelvie Tiafack
SPREAD PICK: Nelvie Tiafack -3.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 5.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: -5000 odds indicate an overwhelming mismatch likely ending in early stoppage.

GAME: Lucrecia Manzur @ Amanda Serrano
PICK: Amanda Serrano
SPREAD PICK: Amanda Serrano -3.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 6.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Serrano is a pound-for-pound elite champion massively outclassing this opponent.

GAME: Melissa Mortensen @ Mayeli Flores
PICK: Mayeli Flores
SPREAD PICK: Mayeli Flores -1.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 6.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Low
REASON: Tight moneyline odds signal a genuinely close, competitive bout likely to go the distance.

GAME: Jackson Marinez @ Avious Griffin
PICK: Avious Griffin
SPREAD PICK: Avious Griffin -3.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 5.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: -3333 odds reflect a heavy skill gap favoring Griffin for an early finish.

GAME: Melissa Mortensen @ Mayelli Flores Rosquero
PICK: Mayelli Flores Rosquero
SPREAD PICK: Mayelli Flores Rosquero -1.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 6.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Low
REASON: Nearly even odds suggest a close fight likely to go longer than expected.

GAME: Hammet Keb del Valle @ Jahmal Harvey
PICK: Jahmal Harvey
SPREAD PICK: Jahmal Harvey -3.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 5.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Harvey's elite amateur pedigree and -5000 line point to a dominant, likely early win.

GAME: Carlos Miguel Ronner @ Harley Burrows
PICK: Harley Burrows
SPREAD PICK: Harley Burrows -4.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 4.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: -10000 odds indicate an extreme mismatch favoring a quick finish for Burrows.

GAME: Jon Martinez @ Louie Ward
PICK: Louie Ward
SPREAD PICK: Louie Ward -3.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 5.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: -8000 odds show Ward is a massive favorite expected to win comfortably and early.

GAME: Durval Palacio @ Oleksandr Khyzhniak
PICK: Oleksandr Khyzhniak
SPREAD PICK: Oleksandr Khyzhniak -3.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 6.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Khyzhniak's superior amateur and pro credentials should carry him to a clear-cut win despite lack of listed odds.

GAME: P A Gordon @ Leli Buttigieg
PICK: Leli Buttigieg
SPREAD PICK: Leli Buttigieg -1.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 6.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Low
REASON: No betting market available, so this pick leans on home-fighter presumption.

GAME: Brian Maximiliano Rios @ Pat McCormack
PICK: Pat McCormack
SPREAD PICK: Pat McCormack -3.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 5.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: -5000 odds show McCormack should dominate and likely finish early.

GAME: Caine Singh @ Connor Mitchell
PICK: Connor Mitchell
SPREAD PICK: Connor Mitchell -4.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 4.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: -10000 odds reflect an extreme mismatch pointing to a quick stoppage win.

GAME: Ellie Hellewell @ Tiah Mai Ayton
PICK: Tiah Mai Ayton
SPREAD PICK: Tiah Mai Ayton -2.5 rounds
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 6.5 rounds
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: -1800 odds make Ayton a strong favorite, though Hellewell has some live underdog value.

WNBA

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics | Moneyline | Minnesota Lynx
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Portland Fire @ Toronto Tempo | Moneyline | Portland Fire | ODDS: -144 | REASON: Fire's veteran roster construction should give them an edge over an expansion team still gelling in Toronto.

GAME: Golden State Valkyries @ Chicago Sky
PICK: Golden State Valkyries
SPREAD PICK: Valkyries -5.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 164.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Valkyries' disciplined defensive system has been tougher for opponents to solve than Chicago's inconsistent rotation.

GAME: Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics
PICK: Minnesota Lynx
SPREAD PICK: Lynx -3.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 158.5
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Minnesota's superior depth and defensive cohesion make them the more reliable team on the road against a rebuilding Mystics squad.

GAME: Portland Fire @ Toronto Tempo
PICK: Portland Fire
SPREAD PICK: Fire -3.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 161.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Portland's more experienced core should control pace and execute better in clutch moments against a new expansion franchise.

Liga MX

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Atlante FC @ Tigres | Moneyline | Tigres
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Monterrey @ León | Moneyline | Monterrey | ODDS: +114 | REASON: Monterrey is a historically elite squad getting plus-money as a true road underdog, offering solid value against a León side that hasn't been dominant enough to justify such a short price.

GAME: Atlante FC @ Tigres
PICK: Tigres
SPREAD PICK: Tigres -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 2.5
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Tigres' superior talent and home-field edge should overwhelm a newly-promoted Atlante side lacking top-flight experience.

GAME: Monterrey @ León
PICK: León
SPREAD PICK: León -1
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 2.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: León's home form gives them a slight edge, but Monterrey's quality should keep this a tight, low-scoring affair.

GAME: América @ FC Juárez
PICK: América
SPREAD PICK: América -1
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 2.5
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: América's attacking depth and consistency make them clear favorites over a struggling Juárez outfit.

GAME: Toluca @ Querétaro
PICK: Toluca
SPREAD PICK: Toluca -1
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 2.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Toluca's dynamic attack should exploit Querétaro's shaky defense even on the road.

Brazil Serie A

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Remo @ Fluminense | Moneyline | Fluminense
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Remo @ Fluminense | Moneyline | Fluminense | ODDS: -260 | REASON: Fluminense's home quality and squad depth should prove too much for a Remo side that projects as a significant underdog in class and form.

GAME: Remo @ Fluminense
PICK: Fluminense
SPREAD PICK: Fluminense -1.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 2.5
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Fluminense's superior talent and home advantage should allow them to control the match and score multiple goals against a weaker Remo defense.

AFL

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats | Moneyline | Geelong Cats
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Adelaide Crows | Moneyline | Adelaide Crows | ODDS: -400 | REASON: Adelaide is dominant at home this season and GWS's inconsistent away form makes the Crows a safer investment than the implied probability suggests.

GAME: Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues
PICK: Fremantle Dockers
SPREAD PICK: Fremantle Dockers -12.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 158.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Fremantle's stronger midfield and recent form give them the edge on the road against an inconsistent Carlton side.

GAME: Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons
PICK: Melbourne Demons
SPREAD PICK: Melbourne Demons -20.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 155.5
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Melbourne's home ground advantage and defensive structure should be too strong for a Bulldogs side lacking consistency this year.

GAME: Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats
PICK: Geelong Cats
SPREAD PICK: Geelong Cats -55.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 165.5
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Geelong's depth and home dominance make this an overwhelming mismatch against a rebuilding Richmond outfit.

GAME: Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Adelaide Crows
PICK: Adelaide Crows
SPREAD PICK: Adelaide Crows -28.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 160.5
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: Adelaide's attacking firepower at home should overwhelm a GWS side that struggles on the road.

NRL

BEST BET OF THE NIGHT: Canterbury Bulldogs @ St George Illawarra Dragons | Moneyline | Canterbury Bulldogs
VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles @ Newcastle Knights | Moneyline | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | ODDS: +200 | REASON: Manly's attacking talent gives them a live shot to upset a Knights side that has been inconsistent at home this season.

GAME: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles @ Newcastle Knights
PICK: Newcastle Knights
SPREAD PICK: Newcastle Knights -4.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 43.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: Knights are favored at home but Manly's scoring ability keeps this closer than the moneyline suggests.

GAME: New Zealand Warriors @ South Sydney Rabbitohs
PICK: New Zealand Warriors
SPREAD PICK: New Zealand Warriors -6.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 42.5
CONFIDENCE: Medium
REASON: The Warriors' strong defensive structure and form edge should be enough to control this game away from home.

GAME: Canterbury Bulldogs @ St George Illawarra Dragons
PICK: Canterbury Bulldogs
SPREAD PICK: Canterbury Bulldogs -10.5
OVER/UNDER PICK: Under 41.5
CONFIDENCE: High
REASON: The Bulldogs' heavy favorite status reflects a clear form and personnel advantage over a struggling Dragons outfit.

19+ (18+ in Alberta) | Please gamble responsibly. These picks are for informational purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600.

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